joltdudeuc

iTrader: (6)

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...tract-details/

That's a lot better. Really good that SF can move on in any given year for little "kap" hit ;-)

OneManArmy

iTrader: (7)

Makes sense IF he doesn't hit his marks the guaranteed is something they can handle. IF he does... then he was worth the money. Though I don't think he'll ever be worth 21mil a year. But yes he's young and he definitely has all the athletic tools. Now he has the receivers and running game as well. He has NO excuses this year. If he puts up a bunch of 150 yard games this year that's not a good sign.

As far as the salary cap goes. It's just like raising min wage. Everyone is going to want a piece and the the players union will start pushing to raise league min again. Etc.

Right now the niners can afford it because they really only have a few veterans on the team bringing in high dollar. They have a lot of young guys. If they can keep finding young talent they'll be fine. Kind of like the A's. They're farm team is so good that they can compete. But you hit a lull in the farm team and you go from 1st to last really quick because you can't afford to bring in a few big players to fill the gaps. They've got a few guys that are going to start asking for some big money in 2-3 years. Fortunately about that time they'll be out from under Gore, Boldin and probably V.D.

I just don't buy Kaep as a $20m QB... ever. If he is then the niners are set for the next 10 years and should pocket 3 rings in that time.

But I'm also on the same fence with Wilson. He's a lot like Garcia. He's VERY smart. He's a good mobile QB as far as knowing when to run and when to stay in the pocket. But he's a dink and dunk QB with the best defense in the NFL and one of the best running games in the NFL around him. Just about any QB in the NFL wins a super bowl with that team. My guess is they win it this year too.

S.F. will be there again. Denver will be there again if they improved where they're trying to improve and can prop Manning up long enough. This is probably his last year. Maybe 1 more but I doubt it.

S.F. is a lock for being a threat for the next couple years regardless of who their QB is. Hopefully he improves because if he does they'll have a couple rings in the next few years. Especially if Hyde is good and they can land a top end WR in the draft next year.

OneManArmy

iTrader: (7)

Yeah that reads a lot smarter. They're basically saying... o.k. You think you're worth it... prove it. We'll put it out there but YOU have to go get it.

It's actually the second lowest percentage of guaranteed money for any QB signed right now... the second lowest to Matt Flynn.

» Over the Cap- Top NFL Contracts: Quarterback

Those last 2 year though... that's INSANE money unless he all of a sudden becomes the best passer in the NFL because by then he won't be all that big of a threat with his feet. From time to time sure. But not like he is now. But then again... not guaranteed.

$21m a year is nuts. It seems to me that the super huge QB contracts are actually starting to taper off since people are seeing what the Ravens deal did to that team. You sink too much in to the wrong guy and you're franchise is done for a few years.


Look at the top 3 contracts as far as "total" dollars.

Kaep. Young and talented but so far has proven anything in my book.
Cutler. Good but really.... wtf. Look what happened to the bears.
Flacco. Had the Super Bowls and decent stats. But he got paid for playoff success... which was a lot like Kaep and Wilson.... team based. And look what happened after they signed that fat contract.


Rodgers/Romo/Brees. All 3 of those guys are 4500 yards a year.

FXTbrah

iTrader: (17)

Do you buy Cutler, Stafford and Romo as 20mil qbs? Do you hold them to the same 3 rings standards? Kaps had a lot of early success, which is rare and he's definitely worthy of being our franchise qb. Hopefully we get a ring in his tenure but nothing is guaranteed just by signing him.

This I can agree with. At worse we'll be competitive in a very tough division.
Did Flacco really kill his team or did it have to do with age and injuries? AFC north had a bunch of old timers that needed to be replaced and for some reason they never groomed their replacements. Coupled with Pitta getting injured, Boldin getting traded and Ray Rice getting dead legs. I dont think Flacco killed the Ravens chances but his contract definitely set the bar on what QBs can expect to make.

reign_

iTrader: (1)

Super Bowl appearance that was 1 play from winning, and a conference championship that was for all intents and purposes the 2 best teams of the year, where they were within 7 points of the lead?

I don't know about you, but what I've seen so far is pretty promising. The dude has a ton of natural talent. That game against the Packers 2 seasons ago was a QB performance like almost nothing I've seen before.

They aren't paying the kid for what he is right now, they're paying him for what they hope he becomes. After what he has done his first 1.5 years as a starter, I've got no problems with it at all.

The guy has unbelievable potential, and there was no way they were going to let him go. Yes, he still has things to work on, but he's in a great spot after 2 years in the league imo.

Cutler has been banged up the last 3 years. If he's fully healthy this year like they're hoping, I think he'll do fine.

Plus, the Bears have other problems that Cutler can't help with. Their defense last years was far and away the worst defense showing they've had in their franchise's history (they've never given up more points in a single season).

True. But nobody has a crystal ball and can know the future. Flacco played like he deserved something near the biggest contract in the NFL for a while there. Predicting the future is tough.

Franchise QBs are hard to find. I mean look at what the 49ers have been dealing with in the last 10 years. They were treading water trying to find a solid QB.

We haven't had any talent in that spot since Garcia. Kaep has far and away been our best player in that role, so they're committing to him. Makes total sense to me.

Say what you want about the huge contract, but like I said, it won't seem so out of the ordinary in 2-3 years when the elite QBs get new deals that are even bigger.

QBs also play a bigger role than just the on the field. Kaep has already become an icon in today's league, and that provides a lot of value to the team. His jersey was #3 in sales last year. He's more than just a player on the team, he's the face of the franchise right now, and that certainly factors into the contract.

Absolutely. EDIT: actually close but not really. Brees is the only guy that's putting up those numbers consistently. Romo and Rodgers have only hit 4500 once. They're certainly close though. They avg around 4,100-4,300.

Rodgers has 6 years under his belt, Romo has 8 and Brees has 12.

Remember that in addition to the 3,197 yards passing, Kaep also ran for 524. Accounting for 3,721 yards combined for his 1st year starting.

Those 3 QBs play in pass-heavy offenses. The 49ers have been in the top 8 in rushing the last 3 years. And of course, last year they led the league in rushing.

Romo/Rodgers/Brees are elite passers.

Kaepernick isn't an elite passer, and who knows if he'll ever be one, but he has running ability that those 3 guys just don't have.

Ok I'm done typing. The 49ers have been in a better spot in the last 3 years than they have been in a long time. I have no reason not to believe in the front office right now.

OneManArmy

iTrader: (7)

I can agree with most of that.

That one play... he had 3 wide open receivers and 1 RB that was about to be. A simple pump fake and dump to gore and they win. Or even a look. He looks at Crab and hits Boldin that's a first down with the clock stopped or it's a T.D. Could have hit V.D. Etc.

That one play showed everything that's wrong with him. No presnap read. No ability to read during a play and make check downs. Poor decision making.

That will hopefully change with time. He's got the money and the commitment now. As well as 7 guys that can catch. So he has no excuse... it's his 4th year as a pro.

The niners have made some great decisions so this could pay off. He can lower those running yards down to the 400's and raise the passing up to 3800-4100 and get consistent... i.e. not half a season of 150 yard 50 rating games... he'll be worth every penny and the niners will win a few Super Bowls... or at least be in them. Seattle is gonna be tough to beat for a while.



Cutler show flashes of being really really good but not $20m good. His pay check is part of their other issues. No depth.

Flacco/Ravens. A huge part of their issue has been money. You lock up money in one guy you can't afford depth. Depth wins super bowls.

Look at what happened in GB. Rodgers gets hurt and they tank. No depth anywhere on that team. They lost a few of their key guys and there was no one to step in.



Those 3 QBs.

Romo is mobile like Young or Gannon or Favre. They can run a little but instead of running they use their legs to give them a chance to make the throw. That's what CK needs to develop. Guys that run for 500 yards a season don't last all that long. To be what they want him to be... gotta run less and look more.

Drew Brees is the same way. He's too damn small to be running across the line on a regular basis.

Rodgers... He runs a little more so if want to add some of his stats together... 4643 passing. 257 running. And more importantly 6 turn overs and a rating of over 122. That's 4900 yards and 48 TDs.

He's accounted for 4200 yards every full year as a starter. My opinion... dude stays healthy he'll retire the best QB in NFL history because he can flat out pass, he's smart AND he can run if he needs to and knows when to do so.

If I was CK I'd be watching tape on rodgers every day of my life. Rodgers. The later years of Steve Young. The later years of Rich Gannon. Etc.



But you very well might be right... with his talent and now with a 20 million dollar carrot in front of his face. He could be the best mobile QB of all time when all is said and done. If that's true... the niners are genius'.

joltdudeuc

iTrader: (6)

What if he doesn't improve? What if this is just the Kap you get for 6 years? Would he still be worth the $?

I don't Flacco, Ryan and the like (Cutler) are worth their contracts. I think Peyton is though.

What if he regresses? What if the niners do hit cap hell and they decline? I don't know... I know he's clearly better than Alex Smith, but I don't know if he will really improve in his pocket passing.

I guess for SF there is a lot of room to go up, but, I also see the possibility to slide.

FXTbrah

iTrader: (17)

You guys are not understanding the contract. If Kap doesn't improve, he can be cut at anytime. That 61 is only guaranteed if hes hitting all his incentive goals. The contract is literally 6 one year deals. We can cut him after next season and only owe him 13mil.

The way the deal breaks down is pretty crazy. No agent would sign this so I do think Kap took one for the team on this. He's basically willing to earn his money with his performance every year. Its only 13million guaranteed.

source:

joltdudeuc

iTrader: (6)

I understand that, I posted about that too above.

I don't think they will cut him though. If they will keep Alex for 8 bad years, they won't cut Kap. I think they would only do so if they really had a good QB to take his place.

And my guess it they offered the $ to keep him in SF, and keep him happy. I think he definitely took one for the team though.

joltdudeuc

iTrader: (6)

So what about Boone, Davis and some of these other guys? Think they will get their money?

FXTbrah

iTrader: (17)

All depends on what happens with Crabs. He's going be a FA with a lot of other great WRs so I think it devalues him a bit. I think the smart move is to extend Davis to keep him happy and see if we can get Crabs. If not, keep Boone and try to move up in the draft for TY Hnnngomery. Might be a bit of a homer but I see him as a NFL ready receiver and his YAC ability rivals Crabtrees and hes more physical to boot.

I don't think Davis is looking for more money per year. I think he understands that with all the other receivers around him this year, his numbers will likely drop off. He's also been somewhat injury prone the last couple years. I think he wants another long term deal for peace of mind.

joltdudeuc

iTrader: (6)

I'd still trade to be in your situation rather than ours though LOL...

stupidchicken03

iTrader: (38)

reign_

iTrader: (1)

Remember though. The play calling is not on him. They got stonewalled the previous 2 downs which were both passes, and for some reason the coaches decided to call another pass.

And you have to remember this was the kids 11th career NFL start. To assumer that he will overcome a horrible play call is asking for a little much.

Plus Kaep was a ton of the reason they got to the SB in the first place. He plays absolutely lights out against GB and played a super solid game vs ATL.

If you want to judge a player with 11 starts on a single play that was given to him by his coaches, go ahead though. I prefer to look at the bigger picture.

4th year in the league sure, but this year is only his second full season.

A lot of that is up to the playcalling. The Niners offense still seems to be in Alex Smith game manager mode in the passing game. They still seem to love the short ~15 yard passes underneath the safety.


Almost no current team can succeed while losing a few of their key guys. Except for the Patriots it seems lol.

The Packers' offense is so heavily based around Rodgers that when he is out there's no way they can have someone step in and replicate what he does. At least they're getting their running game going with Lacy. But his effectiveness still relies on the passing game quite a bit.

Like I said, those guys are great passers. The game seems to be evolving into one where a mobile QB isn't just one who can scramble to pass, but scramble to run.

I agree, he does need to know when to scramble for a pass. Wilson has done that pretty well so far.

We'll see how he holds up health-wise. He gets clear of guys quickly on his runs, and is very good about keeping his head up and getting out of bounds to avoid hits. I think that'll be something that'll keep him from getting beaten up like RG3.

OneManArmy

iTrader: (7)

I think you were on point with what you were saying about this being the future of QB contracts. ESPECIALLY mobile QB's.

Too many guys got big dough thrown at them and then regressed and it killed the franchise for a few years or 10.

So with a contract like this you do a few things...
1. Lock down potential.
2. They don't lock up a ton of cap space right away.
3. Risk vs. reward is good. He gets hurt or never gets to where they think he will they're not on the hook for all that much.
4. HUGE HUGE carrot in front of his face to get him to be focused, stay focused and be great.

Looking at the guaranteed percentage I wouldn't be surprised if this is how most contracts start to get shaped for guys like CK and even big name RB's like a couple of these young RB's that will be looking for big contracts in the next 2 years.