Official: 49ers 2014/2015 Season (Hello Levi's Stadium!)
06-05-2014, 02:25 PM
#91
Remember though. The play calling is not on him. They got stonewalled the previous 2 downs which were both passes, and for some reason the coaches decided to call another pass.
And you have to remember this was the kids 11th career NFL start. To assumer that he will overcome a horrible play call is asking for a little much.
And you have to remember this was the kids 11th career NFL start. To assumer that he will overcome a horrible play call is asking for a little much.
Let's ask it this way, if both Andrew Luck and Kap were available and both commanded the same salary, would you stick by Kap? I'll admit, he's a far better improvement over Smith. Leaps and bounds. But he is getting paid elite QB money and needs to develop his game more. And by elite it's because of Flacco and I wouldn't necessarily consider Flacco elite, but that was the precedence. Which means Russell Wilson, sitting with his ring, will be getting a much bigger paycheck.
06-05-2014, 02:40 PM
#92
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I think you were on point with what you were saying about this being the future of QB contracts. ESPECIALLY mobile QB's.
Too many guys got big dough thrown at them and then regressed and it killed the franchise for a few years or 10.
So with a contract like this you do a few things...
1. Lock down potential.
2. They don't lock up a ton of cap space right away.
3. Risk vs. reward is good. He gets hurt or never gets to where they think he will they're not on the hook for all that much.
4. HUGE HUGE carrot in front of his face to get him to be focused, stay focused and be great.
Looking at the guaranteed percentage I wouldn't be surprised if this is how most contracts start to get shaped for guys like CK and even big name RB's like a couple of these young RB's that will be looking for big contracts in the next 2 years.
Too many guys got big dough thrown at them and then regressed and it killed the franchise for a few years or 10.
So with a contract like this you do a few things...
1. Lock down potential.
2. They don't lock up a ton of cap space right away.
3. Risk vs. reward is good. He gets hurt or never gets to where they think he will they're not on the hook for all that much.
4. HUGE HUGE carrot in front of his face to get him to be focused, stay focused and be great.
Looking at the guaranteed percentage I wouldn't be surprised if this is how most contracts start to get shaped for guys like CK and even big name RB's like a couple of these young RB's that will be looking for big contracts in the next 2 years.
06-05-2014, 04:16 PM
#93
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This is where you lose me. He specifically said that if he got a one on one matchup with Crabtree vs Sherman, that's where he was going. That's not play calling, that's him. That shows his 11th career start right there. Immaturity. A smart QB would go for the high percentage throw, not trying to beat one of the best corners in the NFL. There is a reason why when teams face a team with an elite corner, their primary receiver sees far fewer passes thrown their way. He made a bad decision to throw there, and then under threw the ball on top of it. He has a single focus. I've seen it numerous games, he fails to make his check downs. He looks for one guy, sees he's covered and runs. He needs to do a better job of staying in the pocket, completing his check downs and making the proper throw.
Let's ask it this way, if both Andrew Luck and Kap were available and both commanded the same salary, would you stick by Kap? I'll admit, he's a far better improvement over Smith. Leaps and bounds. But he is getting paid elite QB money and needs to develop his game more. And by elite it's because of Flacco and I wouldn't necessarily consider Flacco elite, but that was the precedence. Which means Russell Wilson, sitting with his ring, will be getting a much bigger paycheck.
Like I've said a few time already, the big dollar amount looks like elite money right now, but in 2-3 years it'll be right at home with all the other upper-echelon QBs.
Plus, you have to take into consideration all of the stipulations regarding guaranteed money. He's only guaranteed $61 million.
And keep in mind that the salary cap is expected to keep rising over the next few years.
Take a look at Kaepernick's salary structure, mainly the cap hit.
Colin Kaepernick Contracts, Salaries, Cap Hits, & News Profile
Starts at $17 million, rises to $23 million in the final year.
His cap hit this year is minimal. Next year he will take up ~12% of the cap.
Joe Flacco Contracts, Salaries, Cap Hits, & News Profile
Now look at Flacco's. They backloaded it so much, he's going to hinder that team if he doesn't carry them in those final years.
Look at Kaep's dead money vs his too. If they dump Kaep, the cap hit is super minimal.
Baltimore is absolutely stuck with Flacco until 2018.
Kaep's contract is extremely flexible for the team. It's almost an unheard of situation as far as dead money goes.
There's really no safety net for him. They can cut him with no huge cap repercussions. That's why the contract is so big. It's totally incentive based.
If he continues to perform and evolves into an elite QB, he gets paid like an elite QB.
If he doesn't live up to expectations, he gets paid like a better-than-avg QB, and can absolutely be cut or traded easily with no significant impact to the 49ers.
People just need to stop looking at the $126 million sticker. It really throws off the entire discussion.
Last edited by reign_; 06-05-2014 at 04:25 PM. Reason: makin' things bold
06-05-2014, 04:57 PM
#94
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Someone please ring up Steve Young's stats.
Passer PCT didn't have over 60% until his 4th year.
Started midway through year 7.
Didn't have a full season until year 8.
Superbowl on the 10th year with a crazy *** 70.3% PCT.
I do agree that Kaepernick could have pump faked against Seattle and threw it over the top to the RB to end the game and kill the clock.
I also think he sees the film more often than we do and knows that's where he can improve. He sees what we see, I guarantee the coaches see what happens right after the game and Kaep knows where he can improve. So we'll see if he can use his legs to improvise and throw versus the run.
In the playoffs, I think he ends up running if he has the lane anywho. The guy has pure athleticism and a gun arm (no deep target as of yet), once he hones on his weaknesses he'll be ok.
Passer PCT didn't have over 60% until his 4th year.
Started midway through year 7.
Didn't have a full season until year 8.
Superbowl on the 10th year with a crazy *** 70.3% PCT.
I do agree that Kaepernick could have pump faked against Seattle and threw it over the top to the RB to end the game and kill the clock.
I also think he sees the film more often than we do and knows that's where he can improve. He sees what we see, I guarantee the coaches see what happens right after the game and Kaep knows where he can improve. So we'll see if he can use his legs to improvise and throw versus the run.
In the playoffs, I think he ends up running if he has the lane anywho. The guy has pure athleticism and a gun arm (no deep target as of yet), once he hones on his weaknesses he'll be ok.
06-05-2014, 05:02 PM
#95
If you said Rodgers or Kaep... I'd say... Kaeperwhosewhat?
Just for because I'm a sucker for numbers...
Kaep: 16 games. 3700 total yards. 25 TDs. 13 Turn Overs. 91.6 rating.
That rating is much higher than I expected but when you don't throw much that's not that hard to do.
Smith: 15 games. 3750 total yards. 24 TDs. 10 turn overs. 89.1 rating (was expecting 92)
Rodgers. 8 games. 2650 yards. 17 TDs. 6 turn overs. 104.9 rating. (Double that and you're looking at 4300 yards. 34 TDs. 12 turn overs) That's a down year for him and no doubt less than he would have had by at least 300 yards and 7 or so TD's.)
So you could say Rodgers had better tools but I'd say... for a few weeks sure. But they all got hurt too. Smith's tools are about the same as Kaeps.
Take Smith's last few games with the same S.F. offense Kaep is working with... game for game...
Games 1-8
Smith: 1788 yards. 12 TDs. 6 turn overs. Rating around 100. That doesn't include the crushing start to the STL game he had going. 6-2 record
Kaep.
Games 1-8
Kaep: 1878 yards. 11 TDs. 9 Turn overs. Rating maybe low 80's... maybe.
Doesn't include is 100 yard duck against Carolina. 6-2 record. Heck.. in one of those games Dixon and Hunter passed for more TDs than Kaep did.
So... if this dude is worth what Rodgers is worth and so much better than Alex Smith then why is Rodgers putting up more yards... every year since he became a starter and why did Alex Smith actually perform better with the same offense?
Not saying that Smith is a better athlete... he's not. I'm not saying he's got a better arm... he doesn't. But I am saying that people loved to hate on the dude but he was doing essentially the same damned thing as Kaep... but more efficiently and less dangerously with the same results... and people love Kaep and hate Smith.
Just an observations based purely on stats.
Just for because I'm a sucker for numbers...
Kaep: 16 games. 3700 total yards. 25 TDs. 13 Turn Overs. 91.6 rating.
That rating is much higher than I expected but when you don't throw much that's not that hard to do.
Smith: 15 games. 3750 total yards. 24 TDs. 10 turn overs. 89.1 rating (was expecting 92)
Rodgers. 8 games. 2650 yards. 17 TDs. 6 turn overs. 104.9 rating. (Double that and you're looking at 4300 yards. 34 TDs. 12 turn overs) That's a down year for him and no doubt less than he would have had by at least 300 yards and 7 or so TD's.)
So you could say Rodgers had better tools but I'd say... for a few weeks sure. But they all got hurt too. Smith's tools are about the same as Kaeps.
Take Smith's last few games with the same S.F. offense Kaep is working with... game for game...
Games 1-8
Smith: 1788 yards. 12 TDs. 6 turn overs. Rating around 100. That doesn't include the crushing start to the STL game he had going. 6-2 record
Kaep.
Games 1-8
Kaep: 1878 yards. 11 TDs. 9 Turn overs. Rating maybe low 80's... maybe.
Doesn't include is 100 yard duck against Carolina. 6-2 record. Heck.. in one of those games Dixon and Hunter passed for more TDs than Kaep did.
So... if this dude is worth what Rodgers is worth and so much better than Alex Smith then why is Rodgers putting up more yards... every year since he became a starter and why did Alex Smith actually perform better with the same offense?
Not saying that Smith is a better athlete... he's not. I'm not saying he's got a better arm... he doesn't. But I am saying that people loved to hate on the dude but he was doing essentially the same damned thing as Kaep... but more efficiently and less dangerously with the same results... and people love Kaep and hate Smith.
Just an observations based purely on stats.
06-05-2014, 05:05 PM
#96
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Rodgers has a ring. He doesn't need to take anymore pay cuts.
If someone was an elite QB, they just need to take a pay cut and win a superbowl... alah Deion Sanders /w the '94 Niners. Pay cut, ring, 1 year.
If someone was an elite QB, they just need to take a pay cut and win a superbowl... alah Deion Sanders /w the '94 Niners. Pay cut, ring, 1 year.
06-05-2014, 05:07 PM
#97
Someone please ring up Steve Young's stats.
Passer PCT didn't have over 60% until his 4th year.
Started midway through year 7.
Didn't have a full season until year 8.
Superbowl on the 10th year with a crazy *** 70.3% PCT.
I do agree that Kaepernick could have pump faked against Seattle and threw it over the top to the RB to end the game and kill the clock.
I also think he sees the film more often than we do and knows that's where he can improve. He sees what we see, I guarantee the coaches see what happens right after the game and Kaep knows where he can improve. So we'll see if he can use his legs to improvise and throw versus the run.
In the playoffs, I think he ends up running if he has the lane anywho. The guy has pure athleticism and a gun arm (no deep target as of yet), once he hones on his weaknesses he'll be ok.
Passer PCT didn't have over 60% until his 4th year.
Started midway through year 7.
Didn't have a full season until year 8.
Superbowl on the 10th year with a crazy *** 70.3% PCT.
I do agree that Kaepernick could have pump faked against Seattle and threw it over the top to the RB to end the game and kill the clock.
I also think he sees the film more often than we do and knows that's where he can improve. He sees what we see, I guarantee the coaches see what happens right after the game and Kaep knows where he can improve. So we'll see if he can use his legs to improvise and throw versus the run.
In the playoffs, I think he ends up running if he has the lane anywho. The guy has pure athleticism and a gun arm (no deep target as of yet), once he hones on his weaknesses he'll be ok.
A lot of guys NEVER get touch on deep ***** or develop an ability to take heat off the ball when necessary. Ever watch Jeff George play? Hell... that was part of Tebows problem. Everything was the same freakin level off the ground and the same temperature.
06-05-2014, 05:22 PM
#99
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Niners need a barn burner, just someone who can run straight (9 route) and just blow past any CB and safety help.
Would love to see some bombs hit the target. Makes a threat at midfield.
Would love to see some bombs hit the target. Makes a threat at midfield.
06-05-2014, 05:29 PM
#100
His last 3 healthy seasons... 13,000 yards. 65 TDs. 39 INTs. Combined rating around 94. 2010 he got hurt but was looking at another 4000 yards 23td season with a 95 plus rating.
Last year... damn near his entire team was hurt. The defense was TERRIBLE. The run game sucked *** and all his receivers where hurt. Play calling was about as dumbfounding as any play calling I've ever seen.
So he has 1 down year and he's suddenly terrible?
The contract he signed is only for 2 years and it's pretty low dollar.
On top of that they have a capable back up and a second round draft pick.
Shaub isn't my pick but neither was Carr. I thought they put money and 2 years in Shaub they should have drafted a WR with that second pick. My opinion it was another bad call by Oakland... but if Carr turns out to be legit I'll shut my mouth on that one. LOL!
But I am going to laugh if Schaub wins the starting job this year and drops 4300 yards and another high 90's rating on the board and Oakland is left going... well... crap.. now what do we do.
jumping ship is for ***** bandwagoners.
06-05-2014, 05:32 PM
#102
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Rayyyyyyyyyy the contracts aren't the saaaaaame. He won't be seeing Rodgers money unless he performs like him. Plus he can get cut at basically any time.
Read my post above here talking about how it's structured. Don't just look at the 6yr/$126 million and assume that he is going to get all that money.
Who hates Smith?
Niners fans hated him before Harbaugh came on because up until then he was a bust of a 1st overall pick.
I think everyone realized once Harbaugh came in is that they shouldn't have put the blame on Alex, but instead on the management and coaches.
Alex had like a million different OC's and coaches. Every year was someone different.
I think when Smith left, almost everyone felt positively towards him.
Read my post above here talking about how it's structured. Don't just look at the 6yr/$126 million and assume that he is going to get all that money.
Who hates Smith?
Niners fans hated him before Harbaugh came on because up until then he was a bust of a 1st overall pick.
I think everyone realized once Harbaugh came in is that they shouldn't have put the blame on Alex, but instead on the management and coaches.
Alex had like a million different OC's and coaches. Every year was someone different.
I think when Smith left, almost everyone felt positively towards him.
06-05-2014, 05:33 PM
#103
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Although Oaktown is out of the money pit, I still think they'll need some time to draft some players to create the roster.
They went kinda the "eh" road and picked up a lot of vets on the backend, that's for sure. But I hope they fix what they got. They can score, that hasn't been the big deal. But damn their defense gets torched day in and day out. Lets hope those vets got something left in the tank besides fumes.
They went kinda the "eh" road and picked up a lot of vets on the backend, that's for sure. But I hope they fix what they got. They can score, that hasn't been the big deal. But damn their defense gets torched day in and day out. Lets hope those vets got something left in the tank besides fumes.
06-05-2014, 05:34 PM
#104
Rayyyyyyyyyy the contracts aren't the saaaaaame. He won't be seeing Rodgers money unless he performs like him. Plus he can get cut at basically any time.
Read my post above here talking about how it's structured. Don't just look at the 6yr/$126 million and assume that he is going to get all that money.
Who hates Smith?
Niners fans hated him before Harbaugh came on because up until then he was a bust of a 1st overall pick.
I think everyone realized once Harbaugh came in is that they shouldn't have put the blame on Alex, but instead on the management and coaches.
Alex had like a million different OC's and coaches. Every year was someone different.
I think when Smith left, almost everyone felt positively towards him.
Read my post above here talking about how it's structured. Don't just look at the 6yr/$126 million and assume that he is going to get all that money.
Who hates Smith?
Niners fans hated him before Harbaugh came on because up until then he was a bust of a 1st overall pick.
I think everyone realized once Harbaugh came in is that they shouldn't have put the blame on Alex, but instead on the management and coaches.
Alex had like a million different OC's and coaches. Every year was someone different.
I think when Smith left, almost everyone felt positively towards him.
agreed... that's pretty much my point.
06-05-2014, 05:40 PM
#105
Although Oaktown is out of the money pit, I still think they'll need some time to draft some players to create the roster.
They went kinda the "eh" road and picked up a lot of vets on the backend, that's for sure. But I hope they fix what they got. They can score, that hasn't been the big deal. But damn their defense gets torched day in and day out. Lets hope those vets got something left in the tank besides fumes.
They went kinda the "eh" road and picked up a lot of vets on the backend, that's for sure. But I hope they fix what they got. They can score, that hasn't been the big deal. But damn their defense gets torched day in and day out. Lets hope those vets got something left in the tank besides fumes.
I feel like they made a smart move by picking up a pretty cheap veteran QB to run the ship while they build a better team bottom up. Then I think they listened to the hate machine too much and got scared. Felt like they'd be looked at as stupid for not taking Carr at that slot.
I think they made a gutsy and quality draft pick in the first round. Then they copped out in the second. I think they should have went WR there and picked up someone like Tom Savage or Boyd or something like that later in the draft. A guy that could sit on your team as a 2/3 QB for a few years and develop and not put any pressure on the organization to replace a veteran that's playing well. (if he plays well).
There are 4 QB's in the draft next year... maybe 6... that would be worth grabbing. Hell I think Hyde would have made more sense than Carr.
I say bad pick.... but they saw something in him so hopefully Schaub plays good this year and he gets to watch a solid QB for a year.. maybe 2... then he comes in a well prepared player and takes off right away as a late second or 3rd year pro.