Imprezer

iTrader: (9)

Yeah, some bad stuff brewing. And, not without the help from my country's (Turkmenistan)beloved (that POS of a human being) leader.

Ukrain might end up with no natural gas...

Putin called Niazov on the phone and "invited" him to come to Moscow. Niazov rarely (2 in the last 3 years) leaves the country so this must be important. I hope they finally set him in place. The reason for that is no other than the current Russia-Ukraine gas situation which Turkmenistan is the KEY factor.

We'll see. I hope something does happen so the world can finally take REAL notice and take REAL actions.

gpatmac

iTrader: (3)

This is what caught my attention

Imprezer

iTrader: (9)

Yeah, but Russia was still exporting the gas to Europe through Ukraine and Ukrain just jacked it from them. They simly kept it. But now, from what I know, Ukraine agreed on the raised price.

riptide2

I have been. The feeling I'm getting is that for the time being Ukraine has done all right for themselves (they get to buy a mixture of Russian and Turkmen gas at a price that's still pretty cheap) -- however, that contract doesn't have any firm future dates. Right now, Ukraine has the trump card, which is the gas pipe to Europe through their territory. However, Russia is currently building the pipe directly to Germany (through the Baltic sea.) Once that is finished, Ukraine is screwed.

Imprezer

iTrader: (9)

Pipeline to Germany is good, but Ukraine will always be transiting Russian gas. Pipeline capacity is always limited. It can only pump X cubic meters of gas per day. And, the prices Russia is paying Ukraine for transit are nothing comparing to the Euro transit prices. So Russia will not pump all its gas into the German pipe. Never. They will use both. And, remember that the distance is important to in transit price. So Eastern Europe is better connected to Russia via Ukraine's pipeline.

I disagree that Ukraine has the trump card. While it's pipeline is the only way to pump gas to expensive Euro markets, it won't worth anything if there is no gas to pump through it. Turkmens have that card. That is why they are toying with both Russia and Ukriane. Always changing pricing and stipulations. They have already signed and resigned and resigned the gas contracts with both Russia and Ukraine like 4 times. Russia "has" a 25 year fixed price contract which Turkmens are no longer honoring. And Ukraine "had" a fixed price contract until the end of 2007. Yet, Turkmen president (#$%^!!!!) just "changed his mind" one day.

Actually, I take it back. He changes his mind all the time. He us "threatening" Russian with his "fantasies" about Trans-Afgan pipeline into Pakistan and India (HUGE MARKETS) and Trans-Iran pipeline to Turkey and Europe.

The Trans-Afgan pipeline was always nearly impossible to built. That is why during the Taliban regime Turkmen government made peice with Talibs so that they can guarantee that afgan tribes would not cause any problems during the contsruction and after it. After the coalition went to Afganistan and blew **** up over there, the region where the pipeline would go through is totally without any control. READ: Pakistan border where Osama is hiding.

Pipeline through Iran would **** off US so they are just saying it, yet it still is a possibility. The bottom line is, Turkmen president is nuts. He is worse than Saddam in some cases. The country is in poverty, human rights are NON EXISTENT, no press, no theatres, no museums. Just pictures and statues of himself.

And the world is just keeping quiet about his regime, becuase as screwed up as it is right now, noone wants to stir up the bee hive. Russia will do whatever it takes and close their eyes to get cheap gas from Turkmens. They will even "forget" about 150,000 russian nationals that are stuck in Turkmenistan with NO rights or means to survive or in jail.

Ukraine simply put just needs ANY gas, because they pretty much don't have any and Russia will jack the price so high on them (after electing a NON pro-Putin President) so that they cannot buy it. So Ukraine will forget about all the "democracy" when it comes to Turkmenistan and their "democratic president" will shake the hands of the most corrupt, repressive and evil president in the world (READ: NIAZOV).

US will also not do or say much becuase after being kicked out of Uzbekistan for speaking their mind and trying to act after the most recent democratic uprising in there, they need an "ally" close to Afganistan. And Turkmenistan has the longest border with Afganistan.

Oh well...

gpatmac

iTrader: (3)

Thoughtfully put and well said.

I for one, am becoming exasperated by US diplomacy. I'd like to give (dis)credit where credit is due but I just don't know who to blame. Either the ambassadors are feeding the administration or the administration is just refusing to take action.

I'm guessing it's both: http://usinfo.state.gov/eur/Archive/...07-173713.html (scroll down to read when Rice is challenged by a student as to how much help the US would provide the Ukraine to maintain their democracy.)

There are Hotspots throughout the world which are greater and lesser of a threat than Iraq is. How are our responses decided? We're a democracy. Why don't we have a say? I've always felt that the USA should adopt a much wider usage of a referendum.

Imprezer

iTrader: (9)

I agree with you to some extent. Put it this way, I am not "mad" at US for not doing what I would like them to do. They have their reasons. The reasons which are beyond comprehention. More of like "Just cuz how it is" type of an answer. And, in all honesty, no matter WHAT they do, people will be unhappy. So now with Iraq, lots of people are upset with Bush. But, I guarantee you that if he did not go to war, there will also be plenty of people that are upset... Just different type of people. You cannot have a win/win situation. You just have to think UBER long term, then one might actually make some sense of Bush's decisions. But that's a different topic.

In general, I feel that the state in which US democracy is at is only natural. A natural progression/evolution of social order. People take their freedoms for granted and do not wish to pay any price for them. Everyone yaps their mouths about anything and everything claiming freedom of speech. National interestes are put on the backburner behind secondary (IMHO) issues.

There is a good saying: "your right to swing your arm stops where my chin begins". I beleive that everyone is US these days is just swinging their arms all over the place and at the same time get smacked in the face by others. Sometimes, people just need to STFU and let people in charge do their job. Then, make any adjustments they wish to make ONLY during the election times.

In US-Turkemenistan relations, there isn't much happening in the public eyes. But, there are certain things US can do without doing anything dramatic to impove the situation over there. Why they are not doing it? Or are they doing somethign that we don't know about? Either way, I am patient with Bush. Hope he does the right thing...

Putin on the other hand is a different story. Russian government is still highly corrupt, so I beleive that Russian politics is pretty much determined by the direct interests of the upper "ruling" class and their close people. I see nothing positive done to resolve the crisis of "Central Asian Empires" anytime soon.