* Andrew Bogut and I mentioned this quickly, but here’s an explainer for why the Warriors probably are facing a Carl Landry/Jarrett Jack either-or situation this summer…

-Counting Landry’s player-option for $4M (a salary the GSWs would presumably have to increase if he opts-out and they bid to retain him), the Warriors have committed about $74M to 12 players next season.


That’s already ABOVE the presumed luxury-tax line of anywhere from $70M to $73M for next season (mostly thanks to the combined $58M salaries of five players–Bogut, David Lee, Andris Biedrins, Richard Jefferson and Steph Curry–next season).

And that doesn’t include unrestricted free agent Jarrett Jack, whose starting asking price is expected to be above $5M, the mid-level exception. (We’ll see what he gets, but everybody I talk to assumes the bidding STARTS at $5M in the first year of any multi-year offer.)

So by retaining just one of the two pending/potential key free agents, the Warriors would already go above the luxury-tax line, and remember, GSW ownership scrupulously avoided that this season by giving away Jeremy Tyler and Charles Jenkins.

I think Joe Lacob and his partners would be willing to pay the luxury tax, but it’d be only after very, very, very careful consideration .

And then, I don’t think they’d go over the $4M apron–if you go more than $4M over the lux-tax line, you start incurring much more serious restrictions.

And to bring both Jack and Landry back, the Warriors almost certainly would be going over the apron. To go over the apron, the GSWs would have to believe they’re acquiring a difference-making player to do it, and that’s not Jack or Landry or even Jack AND Landry at this point.

Bringing both Jack and Landry back at market price–inflated by the Warriors’ and the two players’ showing in the postseason–would probably push the Warriors within a million or two of $80M, deep into the tax, and that’s almost certainly an absolute no way at this point.

So I think it’s one or the other, and it’s likely to be Jack… and the Warriors will try to get a player or two to fill in for what Landry gave them. He’s valuable, but maybe they can get more versatile players there. We’ll see.

If the GSWs bring back neither, they’d be sitting in the $66M range for next season, still well above the probable salary-cap line but enough under the lux-tax level that they could sign a player or two at moderate rates.

* How do they replace either Landry or Jack or both if they have such financial restrictions–and are over the cap?

Remember, teams can always go over the cap line to re-sign their own free agents… up to a point.

And the Warriors will be able to use a $5M “mid-level” exception, if they choose. And they don’t have to use all of it–they can break it up to sign different players, or just use part of it for one player

Some free-agent names to consider for the parts of the exception: Mike Dunleavy Jr., Darren Collison, Beno Udrih, Aaron Brooks, Marco Belinelli,

The Warriors could also use ALL of the $5M exception or use Landry and/or Jack for sign-and-trade possibilities, and in those cases, I might offer up some larger names for discussion, including:

-Houston’s Carlos Delfino ($3M team option with Houston), Kyle Lowry ($6.2M team option with Toronto), Mo Williams (unrestricted), Tyreke Evans (restricted F/A with Sacramento), Corey Brewer (unrestricted), Paul Millsap (unrestricted).

* I haven’t heard much interest around the league for Andris Biedrins ($9M) or Richard Jefferson ($11M), whose deals both finally expire next season.

(Both players actually have player-options for next season, but both are locks to exercise those options–it’s guaranteed money.)

It’s more likely that other teams want to dump longer-term bad deals in any talks for one of those two, but the Warriors wouldn’t be interested in that.

Also, the Warriors might be asked to throw-in Klay Thompson or Harrison Barnes for a team to take the Biedrins or Jefferson deal off their hands, and there’s no way the Warriors do that, either.

So for the notion that the Warriors could use the big expirings as a trade chip… maybe check back at the trade deadline next February for teams wanting/needing to dive under by next off-season.

If the Warriors keep Biedrins and Jefferson and let both contracts expire next season, they’d drop under the salary-cap line for summer 2014… with Bogut as an unrestricted F/A, also.

(And Klay Thompson’s second-deal extension wouldn’t be due for another year… and wouldn’t kick in, if signed, until July 2015.)

* Bogut is also an expiring next season ($14.2M) but he falls into a different category, obviously, because if he plays well there’s little doubt the Warriors would want to extend his deal, if possible.

And I doubt they’d be interested in using him in any kind of trade… though with Dwight Howard, Andrew Bynum and other big names out there in free agency, I wouldn’t doubt if the Warriors get a call or two.

But I think it’s clear that Bogut will be a Warrior next season. Given his ankle issues, it’d be impossible for the Warriors to duplicate his value by trading him… and the short time remaining on his deal is good for all sides to determine his true worth.

Beyond that… Who knows.