Why CAFE changes could lead to larger cars, not smaller ones
By Jeff SabatiniRSS feed
Posted Dec 13th 2011 6:21PM
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A study by the University of Michigan shows that auto manufacturers could meet tougher fuel economy standards simply by increasing the size of the vehicles they sell. A "footprint-based" formula for calculating mileage targets was adopted when Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards were revised in 2007. Researchers now think this could lead to bigger vehicles on the road rather than increases in fuel economy for our nation's fleet.

"It's cheaper to make large vehicles, and meeting fuel-economy standards costs [manufacturers] money in implementing and looking at what consumers will purchase," one of the researchers told Automotive News.

The study simulated changes that auto manufacturers could make to 473 different vehicles in order to meet the new regulations. The model allowed for changing the size of vehicles, as well as adding fuel-saving technology, wile balancing acceleration and performance with fuel economy. Pricing was also taken into account. The researchers think that the size of light trucks is likely to grow, even more than the increases they forecast for cars, with the changes coming about as soon as 2014.

"This study illustrates that there may be a substantial financial incentive to produce larger vehicles, and that it can undermine the goals of the policy," said the lead researcher, who wants the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to revise its formula. Click past the jump to read the University of Michigan's press release on the study.