Salty

iTrader: (14)

I've lost two deals in two days now because of this.

Anyone else heard about this latest scare? Any opinions on it?

EricDaRed81

iTrader: (10)

Bubble?

Salty

iTrader: (14)

Yeah.

A bubble that's about to burst and cause a collapse in the housing market.

Writers jump on this bandwagon that there's a huge potential for a housing market crash in order to print a story.

EricDaRed81

iTrader: (10)

Yeah like this market is going anywhere but up.

Salty

iTrader: (14)

Well it may not continue to go up. If anything, it will slow down to a normal market or plateau at the very worst. Unless of course something triggered a dramatic economic flux in your area.

As long as I have clients buying homes in Folsom that commute to the Bay Area everyday I don't foresee a decline anytime soon. I even home some that drive further if you can believe it...

The problem with these articles is that they’d be more of a reason for a housing market to decline than for a market to decline otherwise. These people write about these things and create a stir and possible panic because of it.

Problem with the argument is that the housing market is not a national market like stocks and bonds. The demand for homes in the Sacramento and Bay Area has little to do with the poor job market, lack of industry or venues influencing the decline of the housing market in BFE, West Virginia.

HellaDumb

iTrader: (3)

I'd say we're overdue for a correction... that or the self fulfilling prophecy will spook the market for a period. I don't know if it's just me, but I've noticed a distinct increase in homes for sale....(maybe my neighbors just don't like me? =)..... I'm really curious about bay area inventory volumes??

For a while, many were selling for $30k over... some prior to the open house... but lately they've been taking a few weeks longer to sell.

There are always going to be cycles, but I'd hate to be the last one in... like people who bought up tech stocks in 2000.

Salty

iTrader: (14)

There's no question that it has slowed down since refi-madness of a couple years ago. Those that you see selling may be investors pulling-out before the plateau or normal market hits. If it hits.

Magish

iTrader: (2)

Here it definately has gone down a bit, but we were not in that much of a bubble. I'm just waiting for some of the mountian community's in colorado's bubble's to crash (ex. Aspen Colorado: 2.7million average home price! )

Salty

iTrader: (14)

I don't think it will.

A lot of factors have to come together to influence a negative market change. Usually demand, the supply of homes, the area, it's venues and local economy etc. Sometimes one significnat factor is good enough to make it stable:

There's always going to be that new software designer wanting to purchase a winter home in Aspen, CO just to hit the slopes. Likewise, there's always going to be that heir or elderly couple selling so they can move to Florida.

I write little tidbits like this on my new site homepage. Something short in order to keep the reader interested. My current spiel in on Northern California and why things should stay stable. Not sure what my next one will be on.

Chrisnonstop

The bay area housing market has nothing to worry about (Knocking on wood). My place in Discovery Bay went up $40K more than what I paid for it. I bought in February.

Salty,
The only "bursting" is going on in Vegas right now. To many people jumped on the "I'll flip this property" band wagon and there just arn't enough buyers right now. A year or so ago the market out there was ON FIRE! Now it's slowed to a crawl. There just isn't enough demand. Unlike out here (As you of course know) where supply can't keep up with demand.

All I can say is, if you can afford a house you better buy it now. Even if it looks like you'll just sqeek by on the payments,...buy it! You can always sell for a fat profit later if the mortage gets out of hand. I would suggest that anywhere else but the bay area though.....

Salty

iTrader: (14)

What you're talking about isn't technically a burst, it's just bad investing in what has become a "normal market" in Vegas. If Joe Schmoe is renting out a home for $1600 with a $2200 mortgage in this slowed market then it only means he's put himself between a rock and a hard place. He's left him wide open to have nothing to flip.

A bubble bursting would be if he has a $2600 mortgage with a $380,000 loan at a $480,000 purchase price and then the fair market value of the home decreasing to $440,000. He's stuck in a mortgage that cannot be justified on the value of the home.

Unregistered

Don't see the bubble bursting in most of the US. But some areas worrry me. Well see only time will tell. Still need to do more research!!! If only I had more time. I also think the market is going to slow down soon. But thats just speculation from a non-expert.

Salty

iTrader: (14)

Not speculation. It already has in most areas.

dub2w

a bubble will only burst if it is artificially inlfated. sacramento is not. at 3-400K for a nice place, sacramento still offers some of the most reasonable prices for a good home in CA. as salty pointed out, people are willing to buy in Sac and commute to the Bay Area. in addition, Sacramento businesses continue to grow and thrive.

imagine all of the same cynics citing a bubble in the 60s and 70s. dont you wish you could have invested in places like Mill Valley back then?

Chrisnonstop

As long as San Francisco (the business hub of the northern bay area) and silicone valley don't vanish, or as long as there isn't a successful terrorist strike at a near by Nuclear facility off of highway 580, our housing prices will continue to go up as supply begins to run dry forcing people to move farther away from thier work. Take Marin county for example. I don't know of any new home developement in Mill Valley, Corte Medera, San Rafael,...ect. I think the last big developement was at the old Air force base in Novato. The homes there were only "affordable" like 5 years ago. Now they're untouchable. A nice developing area now is Hiddenbrook just outside of Vallejo accross from American Canyon. But they too are starting to get pricey. If I had bought my place in December I would have about $70K in equity right now. But the Hawaii trip got in the way of that...one hell of an expensive Hawaii trip.